BLOPS 2 Sales down as much as 15%

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#1 Fri, 11/30/2012 - 08:52
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BLOPS 2 Sales down as much as 15%

Interesting quick article: 

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Black Ops 2 first-year unit sales could be down as much as 15% – analyst

Call of Duty sales are declining, despite the $500 million Black Ops 2 earned its first day at retail, according to Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia.

Speaking in an industry note, Bhatia said retail figures show a double digit decline year-over-year.

“Our checks show initial sales of CoD: Black Ops 2 at some retailers were down as much as 20%,” he said. “Subsequently, it appears sales of CoD did pick up a bit over the Thanksgiving holiday. We think the current sales curve suggests unit sales in its first year could ultimately be down 10 to 15% year-over-year.

“If we are right, this would be the second year in a row this critical franchise will have seen units decline. We estimate CoD generates 40 to 45% of the company’s EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) on an annual basis and it goes without saying that weakness in this franchise is a cause for concern.”

Bhatia said one reason for the decline should have been Halo 4′s launch the week prior, and another reason: customers waiting on holiday sales.

Thanks, GI International.

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Source: http://www.vg247.com/2012/11/29/black-ops-2-first-year-unit-sales-could-...

 

Yeah thats the reason, not becuase everyone is bitching and saying it sucks.  Or there are a shit load of used ones to pick up with people selling them back already.  

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 09:22
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LOL.  Even if sales are down 15-20% that's a shit ton of games.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 10:57
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Cerberus4417 wrote:

 

Call of Duty sales are declining, despite the $500 million Black Ops 2 earned its first day at retail, according to 

 

lol....

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 11:03
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They ain't hurting, not even close!!!

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:31
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To tell you the truth, I think it has more to do with there being a new CoD game every year. It's turned into Madden.... 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:38
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Halo also released 1 week before COD...i'm sure that impacted short term sales.  I don't think they have enough info yet given all the variables this year to make that prediction with any real confidence.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 16:41
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Whiskey wrote:

Halo also released 1 week before COD...i'm sure that impacted short term sales.  I don't think they have enough info yet given all the variables this year to make that prediction with any real confidence.

Yeah.  The analyst (named Arvind = coincidence?) admits that the H4 release date may have impacted week 1 BO2 sales.  These are allegedly his words from the GI link above:

Quote:
1) We note that ratings for Black Ops II on average were slightly lower than Modern Warfare 3, which may have impacted initial sell-through; 2) Black Ops II launched only a week after Halo 4, which could have impacted its sales; and 3) Black Ops II launched only a week before Thanksgiving, which may have caused some consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of potential deals/discounts."

I really don’t understand analysts.  This guy claims that CoD sales are in decline based on his estimate that total MW3 sales were down 5% from BO1 the year before.  So when BO2 did 15%+ less in first week sales than MW3 (11.22 million units BO2 vs 13.45 million MW3), the first drop in first week sales since CoD4 (if ever), he quickly made the leap that BO2 would sell 10-20% less overall than MW3.  Then he made the subsequent leap that this shows “weakness” in the CoD franchise.  I mostly follow the first leap.  These days it’s abnormal for a CoD to release without setting some sort of sales record.  And altho I think that sales over the entire life of BO2 will not be as low as first week sales might suggest, I do agree that it’s likely that BO2 will sell less than MW3.  It’s the franchise weakness thing that bugs me.

Halo 4’s been mentioned.  It’s a big game that released essentially the same time as BO2.  Surely some gamers chose Halo over and will stay with Halo over BO2.  But that pairing is just a snapshot in the current release season.  There has been a steady stream of games releasing since Sept, and it looks like that will continue into the spring.  And I’m not talking about the normal stream of gaming fodder.  I’m talking about decent games with (mostly) established fanbases and (mostly) high meta scores.  Games like Assassin’s Creed 3, Borderlands 2, Far Cry 3, and Dishonored with others like Boishock Infinite, Deadspace 3, Tomb Raider, Splinter Cell Blacklist, and GoW Judgment close on the horizon.  I think these games are providing gamers more quality choices on which to spend their time and $$ than I can recall in and around previous CoD release windows.  It’s this that I think has driven down BO2 sales, at least for the time being.  So couldn’t it be said that BO2’s “decline” in sales is due to the [i]strength[/i] of the current game market, not because of any particular [i]weakness[/i] in the CoD franchise?  After all, exactly how weak is a franchise that can gross $500 million in 24 hours and sell 11.22 million copies in one week?  How many other franchises are that “weak”?  Are there any franchises that “weak”?

/babble.  Got some of my stats from Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/11/24/black-ops-2-tops-11m-units-sold-in-first-week-no-signs-of-call-of-duty-fatigue-yet/

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 16:45
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Sales down? I don't think so. They just made 1 billion dollars in 15 days

Quote:
Santa Monica, CA - December 5, 2012 -Activision Publishing, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI), announced today that Call of Duty®: Black Ops II has crossed the $1 billion mark in worldwide retail sales, according to Chart-Track retail customer sell-through information and internal company estimates. Illustrating the strong appeal of interactive entertainment to audiences worldwide, the game achieved this milestone in just 15 days after its launch on November 13, 2012. Last year's Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare®3 reached $1 billion in retail sales in 16 days. The box office record set for feature films in 2009 by "Avatar" was $1 billion in 17 days¹

 

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 08:28 (Reply to #8)
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YEM wrote:

Sales down? I don't think so. They just made 1 billion dollars in 15 days

Quote:
Santa Monica, CA - December 5, 2012 -Activision Publishing, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI), announced today that Call of Duty®: Black Ops II has crossed the $1 billion mark in worldwide retail sales, according to Chart-Track retail customer sell-through information and internal company estimates. Illustrating the strong appeal of interactive entertainment to audiences worldwide, the game achieved this milestone in just 15 days after its launch on November 13, 2012. Last year's Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare®3 reached $1 billion in retail sales in 16 days. The box office record set for feature films in 2009 by "Avatar" was $1 billion in 17 days¹

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah read that yesterday.  Really conflicting reports.  Activision is saying they are having strong sales, while some analysts are calling for lower than normal sales.  Of course you know Activision needs to show that one of their flagship series is doing well.  I don't know, I'm sure the truth is in the middle some where.  

 

I am more curious to see what Gamestop and Best-Buy's Pre-Owned sales are looking like to see if they have increase this year.  Means more games have been traded in already.  

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 10:12
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Hello bud!  I think the sales are going down because this game is crap.  I am about to trade it in myself.  Lag compensation ruins every other game and then you get these maps where the entire enemy teams constantly spawn behind you. 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 09:33
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I admit, this is the first COD I didn't buy since it was so close to H4.  Even still, the games community is insanely huge and a 15% dip means dick all when you're making 500million in a few days.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 17:31
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Perhaps it has something to do with the economy? Retail sales were down this Christmas - not just for games, but for everything. Businesses going under, people without jobs....I'm sure H4 made an impact, but...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:54
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Actually this article and the anaylist was proven wrong his numbers were way off. There was a story calling his fraud on Gameinformer. COD haters gonna hate but the train keeps running all night long.

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